Sustainability after Lockdown

Introduction edited December 2020

As with the response to the pandemic, the transition to a sustainable future requires us to transparently and honestly observe scientific evidence.

In the UK during the pandemic, our Government and media have repeatedly encouraged unscientific ideas. Notable mentions include Boris Johnson’s Herd Immunity strategy, the official SAGE keeping their decision making opaque (in the scientific world, all ideas must be backed up by evidence and explained to other scientists for peer review before they are taken seriously), and the growing collection of conspiracies around the developed COVID-19 vaccines.

These three examples fall into three different branches of science rejection, each with similar analogues in the climate science world.

Uncertainties over the safety of vaccines receive disproportionate coverage despite health experts supporting them. This bias in reporting erodes public trust in science, leaving space instead for alternative ideas with no evidence basis. This follows the same path seen in the discourses of delay for climate action.

Then there is the lack of transparency in decision-making. When we have no way to verify the reasons for government rules, and decisions are made by only a select few: those in charge marginalise vulnerable communities, and are vulnerable to pressures encouraging cherry-picking results to present only what matches government thinking.

The UK has seen many drastic actions taken by the government, with two national lockdowns (so far…) and many more local restrictions. Despite this, capital has remained at the heart of decision making - we are encouraged to keep shopping, to keep commuting… Keep calm and carry on. All whilst being kept from our friends and family.

Because the value of seeing and caring for our family isn’t measured with finance, we have seen policies allowing large indoor gatherings at pubs and restaurants whilst banning small family gatherings. We should be wary of this intended ignorance to science showcased by the pandemic. We have already seen it with climate science. If we don’t wake up and demand climate action, governments will bulldoze through the Paris agreement to limit warming “well below 2.0”.

Since originally writing this post, the government has announced remarkably higher ambition in its “Nationally Determined Contribution” (how much CO2 emissions we agree to limit to). Yet these targets still fall behind those presented by the governments own committee on climate change, and well below those made by global justice campaigners. And these new government targets remain largely future issues, with very little government action backing them up.

Changes are needed in all sectors, from agriculture to aviation. But what should happen to transport after COVID-19?

How has the Corona Virus outbreak impacted UK transport?

The UK is locked in to cars, in a feedback cycle where industry, infrastructure, urban sprawl, public transport provision, and culture all further promote car use, and therefore also a carbon lock-in.

The lockdown has forced a change on how we as a society will work from home . More of us are expected to continue to work from home after the lockdown, adopting a hybrid strategy of commuting and working from home on different days. In our transition to a green future, we need to find ways to change our industries and our behaviours so that we improve the standards of living for everyone, and avoid reliance on technologies which rely on devastating the people and environments in other countries. We need to break our addiction to cars.

This means a wide spread uptake of active transport (cycling and walking) in UK cities, and the adoption of publicly owned transport as a service networks, connecting countryside to cities and further improving inter-city connectivity. We cannot return to business as usual behaviour.

Transport as a service (TaaS)

Our current mix of privately run public transport offerings neither reduces costs for the tax payer, nor does it provide a reliable or cheap service.

TaaS (also known as Mobility as a Service) is a transition from personally owned modes of transport, to a connected network of shared transport modes. A publicly owned TaaS network should seek to implement buses, ride-sharing bikes, autonomous vehicles, rail, and walking, with the aim of reducing as much as possible the carbon footprint of the travel sector and making transport healthier, faster, and more efficient for all.

Whilst there is a lot of discussion surrounding each different mode of transport as a potential solution to the climate crisis, I think there is very little exploration of the possible technologies that can link these services together into an efficient, enjoyable, and easy to use transport network.

Car transport is inherently inefficient - cars spend most of their time parked. In cities they cause congestion and they pollute. By integrating autonomous vehicles into a TaaS network, we can reduce these inefficiencies for areas where cars are needed - using electric vehicles for a smart bus/taxi service which integrates with other transport modes.

Under TaaS, cars spend more of their life in use, reducing the portion of carbon footprint per journey. Long distance journeys make use of trains/buses. Congestion is avoided by intelligently switching to active transport and other transport modes for a start/end section of short journeys.

Elephant 1: International Travel

There were over 70 million overseas trips in the UK in 2018 , predominantly for holidays (66%). Visiting friends and family made up 23% and business travel less than 10%. Most of these trips involve aviation - and with a single flight in Europe using up a carbon budget bigger than one person should use in a year, a big change is needed in our international travel habits.

The number of business trips is expected to drop after the pandemic, with more meetings happening online. The main focus on decarbonising international travel for the UK should be holidays and family trips - something many people may understandably be keen to resume as soon as possible.

There is no silver bullet solution. The UK government’s Committee on Climate Change acknowledges that even with reductions “aviation will be emitting more CO2 than any other sector by 2050”, and “measures such as tree planting will not be enough [to offset the emissions]”(source). The CCC and many organisations remain uneasy about demanding that we reduce international travel, but with the half of flights taken by a wealthy 10% of society, it is very unjust to squander expensive carbon sequestration to account for these emissions whilst asking the rest of society to make radical changes required to decarbonise.

There are two realistic options to reducing aviation in order to meet necessary emissions reductions - the first is to travel less or not at all, and the second is to increase uptake in slow travel (ie. rail and sail, eurostar). The idea of expanding our runways is insane, growing Heathrow airport or any other UK airport is in complete contradiction with the actions needed to meet emissions reductions targets. Investment for travel should focus on rail links across Europe, encouraging both a reduction in international travel for holidays (eg. max once per year for holiday), and the adoption of conscientious slow travel.

If you are someone who does regularly fly, consider pledging to go flight free for a year!

Elephant 2: High Speed Rail

Many environmental advocates are calling for the cancellation of HS2. The woodland trust highlights the devastating impacts on our ancient woodlands, (over 100 at risk from HS2). Others point out that money spent on HS2 could have benefited more people if spent better connecting the north, and improving bus links.

But the environmental destruction associated with building new rail lines may be minute in comparison to that of new motorways. Carbon emissions of rail running on clean and renewable energy is negligible in comparison to sustaining our car addiction.

Whilst HS2 may not be the answer, it is clear that we need more rail, and fast connections between European cities to reduce local and international travel emissions.