James Fallon

PhD student researcher in the energy-met group in Reading. I write about some of my research interests, hobbies, and global climate justice.

my research

‘Sub-seasonal’ weather forecasts tell us the likely-hood of weather events occurring in coming weeks. We can’t generally interpret these forecasts deterministically, like we might with some short-range forecasts. (For example a short-range forecast might predict over 95% certainty of a heavy rainfall event in 3 days, allowing us to implement mitigation measures with near certainty of a flood occurring). Different decision-making techniques are needed to make use of forecast information approaching an event occurring weeks or months ahead, when the probabilities of different predicted outcomes are lower.

My research focus is around making decisions using these probabilistic forecasts, when the decision context can be unpredictable (random and epistemic uncertainties) and dynamic (current decisions affect the scope of future available actions).